Welcome to the Lavoisier Group Website
You will find here a wide range of papers and the search engine will enable you to look up anything of particular interest.
The topics covered include greenhouse gas theory; solar and planetary influences on the earth's climate; predictions of future climate; the history of climate change; the economics of energy and technology; energy security; the role of the IPCC in promoting global warming hysteria; the response of Australia's governments to the decarbonisation campaigns of the Environmentalist movement and the media.
The Civil Heretic
By Nicholas Dawidoff, The New York Times
"For more than half a century the eminent physicist Freeman Dyson has quietly resided in Princeton, N.J., on the wooded former farmland that is home to his employer, the Institute for Advanced Study, this country's most rarefied community of scholars. Lately, however, since coming "out of the closet as far as global warming is concerned," as Dyson sometimes puts it, there has been noise all around him..." Continue reading ...
Obituary: Professor Bob Carter 1942-2016
It is with great sadness that we report the passing of Professor Bob Carter, who died in Townsville on Tuesday 19 January 2016 following a heart attack. The following tribute was written by Dr Jennifer Marohasy, who was a friend and colleague of Bob's.
"We should prepare for climate change"
OUTSPOKEN critic of catastrophic global warming theory, Bob Carter, died in Townsville on Tuesday.
Professor Carter did not like the term sceptic, he considered himself a rationalist, and popular usage of the term 'climate change' a tautology. As he wrote frequently: the geological record tells us that climate always changes. In Professor Carter's passing we have lost a person who believed in value-free science.
When he was still directing the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, Professor Carter spent an evening with me at his home in Townsville poring over a single chart that was a proxy record of New Zealand's climate over the last several thousand years. The time series data had been printed out on a long and continuous roll of paper: longer than the kitchen table so the end of the chart, that portion representing the present, was often dangling somewhere near the floor.
Professor Carter was always more interested in periods of dramatic climate change, particularly the Younger Dryas. The Younger Dryas occurred about 14,500 years ago, with an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research suggesting Greenland’s temperature rose 10° C (18° F) in a decade. Professor Carter was reluctant to endorse such a dramatic temperature increase, but always emphasized that relative to geological history, late 20th century rates of warming of less than 2° C per century, are not unusual.
Professor Carter was a real expert on climate change. He was director of the Australian Office of the Ocean Drilling Program which was an international cooperative effort to collect deep sea cores. From these cores past climates for specific regions have been reconstructed.
We both presented to the Coalition Environment Committee at Parliament House on 20th October last year. Professor Carter eloquently explained, with examples, how modern temperatures are not unusually warm; that current carbon dioxide levels are low relative to geological time; that as industrial emissions are added to the atmosphere, the less the "greenhouse" warming effect of each increment of carbon dioxide. Therefore, the professor concluded, "dangerous warming of this causation will not occur."
Furthermore, Professor Carter added: the addition of 50 ppm of CO2 for 1981-2010 has fertilized an 11 percent increase in plant cover. Thus CO2 is both a strong environmental (greening the planet) and agrarian (crop yield increases) benefit.
In this presentation, the Professor also emphasized the importance of the scientific method. "To the extent that it is possible for any human endeavor to be so, science is value-free. Science is a way of attempting to understand the world in which live from a rational point of view, based on observation, experiment and tested theory. Irritatingly, especially for governments, science does not operate by consensus and it is often best progressed by mavericks. The alternative to a scientific approach is one based on superstition, phobia, religion or politics." So, wrote Bob Carter in an article entitled 'Science is not Consensus', published by the Institute of Public Affairs in December 2003.
In the preface to his first book 'Climate: The Counter Consensus' Bob encouraged us to all to "trust authority less and our own brains more" as we assess the likely dangers of both known natural and hypothetical human-caused global climate change. Chapter 11 of this book outlined the real and present dangers posed by natural climate change. We are reminded of 1816, known as 'the year without a summer' for its intense cold associated with both the Dalton solar minimum and a super-eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora.
Professor Carter understood that such events were often associated with extreme hardship and famine, and that, to the extent possible, nations should use their resources to mitigate against such catastrophe. In particular, Professor Carter advocated what he referred to as Plan B: that future climate hazards, both natural and possibly human-caused, be assessed in terms of risk that vary in type and intensity from geographic place to place.
"Nobody," the Professor would joke, "lives in a world climate". Putting in place policies and plans to mitigate the dangers and vagaries of natural climate change must occur on a regional basis. Putting in place policies and plan to prepare for natural climate change, would, Professor Carter argued, make us ready for human-caused climate change, should it ever become manifest. Even with generous funding for the implementation of national hazard warning and disaster relief schemes, Bob concluded his book with comment that this would cost orders of magnitude less than those associated with the introduction of unnecessary and ineffectual emissions trading schemes.
Other tributes and notices for Professor Carter may be found at JoNova's website and the Heartland Institute.
A selection of his papers published on the Lavoisier website may be found here.
A mysterious CO2 anomaly in the atmosphere:
how 2.5Gt of carbon came in 1988 and went in 1992
By Tom Quirk, January 2016
There is an unexplained atmospheric CO2 "bubble" centred around 1990. The apparent smooth and continuous rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is broken by an anomaly that can be seen in Figure 1 below.Full PDF of Article...
Crisis in Science
By Don Benjamin, December 2015
The public are being deprived of important information necessary for them to make decisions, including decisions that could affect their survival, because of information unwittingly withheld by the media.
The problem arises out of the fact that in several important controversial areas the majority of scientific experts hold a belief that is contrary to the latest scientific evidence.
Because those in the media have concluded that the majority of medical or scientific experts must be correct, they have decided not to air viewpoints that conflict with those of the consensus of experts. This avoids the criticism by those with vested interests that people might be given wrong information that might put them at risk.
The controversial health areas include cancer, cardiovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, genetics and global warming. Full PDF of Article...
Why Scientists Disagree about Global Warming
By Craig Idso, Robert M. Carter, S. Fred Singer, 23 November 2015, at The Heartland Institute
Summary: "The most important fact about climate science, often overlooked, is that scientists disagree about the environmental impacts of the combustion of fossil fuels on the global climate. There is no survey or study showing "consensus" on the most important scientific issues, despite frequent claims by advocates to the contrary.
Scientists disagree about the causes and consequences of climate for several reasons. Climate is an interdisciplinary subject requiring insights from many fields. Very few scholars have mastery of more than one or two of these disciplines." Continue reading summary and for link to full PDF of Policy Paper...
Drawing the Wrong Conclusions
By Steven Kates, November 2015, in Quadrant Magazine
Global warming and Keynesian theory are natural bedmates, each built on the notion that only harm can come of trusting market forces. As both aim to suppress individual freedom, those who fancy themselves best equipped to regulate the world's affairs tolerate neither naysayers nor contradictory evidence. Full article ...
"Massively Altered" ... German Professor Examines NASA GISS Temperature Datasets
By Pierre Gosselin, 20 November 2015, on NoTricksZone
Veteran journalist Gunter Ederer has written a piece reporting that massive alterations have been found in the NASA GISS temperature data series, citing a comprehensive analysis conducted by a leading German scientist. These results are now available to the public.
Ederer reports not long ago retired geologist and data computation expert Professor Dr. Friedrich Karl Ewert began looking at the data behind the global warming claims, and especially the datasets of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS).
Ewert painstakingly examined and tabulated the reams of archived data from 1153 stations that go back to 1881 -- which NASA has publicly available -- data that the UN IPCC uses to base its conclusion that man is heating the Earth's atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels. According to Ederer, what Professor Ewert found is "unbelievable". Read more...
What You Don't Know About Climate
A public statement from the Climate Study Group, placed in The Australian newspaper, November 2015. PDF is available here.
Peter Mervyn commenting on "French weatherman Philippe Verdier sacked for being a climate sceptic"
in The Australian, 2 November 2015:
"The only true, accurate and reliable global temperature data sets are the two satellite temperature data sets. Virtually every cubic inch of the atmosphere is scanned by these NASA satellites. The data is validated by weather balloon radiosonde temperature data.
In the last 18 years and 8 months, there is no doubting that the atmospheric CO2 concentration has risen for whatever reasons. Yet the satellite temperature data show there has not been any global warming over that same period.
So what we have is an extensive data set kept by the University of Alabama, Huntsville and the one kept by Remote Sensing Systems, both confirming the same thing ... the data represents actual measurements, being first-class real world observational data ... and the data shows no discernible global warming over the last 18 years and 8 months.
That demonstrates that the climate models get an "F" for fail. It also shows that the pseudoscience behind the IPCC's supposition, and the supposition itself, that CO2 emitted by human activity is causing catastrophic global warming and is the key driver of climate change are absolute rubbish!"
Cutting emissions beyond Paris
By Alan Moran on 22 October 2015 in Australian Financial Review
Since the Turnbull Prime Ministership, Environment Minister Greg Hunt has used somewhat tougher language in selling the government's intent to force a reduction in Australia's greenhouse gas emissions.
No longer do we have Tony Abbott's prospective axing of the renewable scheme with its $2.5 billion a year cost to consumers and the closure of the $10 billion Clean Energy Development Corporation. Instead we have assurances that the renewable requirement will never be reduced and a stressing of $1.8 million fines for companies that breech their baseline requirements. Read more...
Ideology adds heat to the debate on climate change
By Jennifer Marohasy on September 29, 2015 in The Australian
For the true believer, it is too awful to even consider that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology could be exaggerating global warming by adjusting figures. This doesn't mean, though, that it's not true.
In fact, under prime minister Tony Abbott, a panel of eminent statisticians was formed to investigate these claims detailed in The Australian newspaper in August and September last year. Read more...
'Climate sceptics should be jailed', say scientists
The science on global warming is settled, so settled that 20 climate scientists are asking President Barack Obama to prosecute people who disagree with them on the science behind man-made global warming.
Scientists from several universities and research centers even asked Obama to use the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) to prosecute groups that "have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change, as a means to forestall America's response to climate change." Read more...
Another inconvenient truth on climate change
By Brett Hogan on September 13, 2015 in Economic freedom
Graham Lloyd, the Australian's Environment Editor, has a fascinating piece in Friday's paper about the Southern Ocean's renewed ability to absorb increased amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
It wasn't long ago that environmentalists were alleging that the Southern Ocean was "full" of CO2 because of wicked humans!. Read more...
Briefing Note: Environmental Policy
Having announced a target for reducing emissions by 26 per cent by 2030, is it feasible for the Abbott government to publish a critique of the reductions approach being adopted by some countries? As it appears that the Paris talks will involve a "pledge and review" that will be highly unlikely to involve legally binding commitments by (at least) major developing countries, there would seem no reason to forego publishing a critical review and to indicate that Australia will not adopt policies that would reduce potential economic growth (now acknowledged by the one-eyed Climate Change Authority under former Treasury Head Bernie Fraser) until major emitters have all agreed to substantive reductions. Continue reading...
Des Moore: "Exposing the myths of climate change"
A presentation to the Forum on Climate Change held in Noosa, July 2015. PDF of the presentation is here.
Interesting New Post
Anthony Watts: Despite the "urgency" of Paris climate talks, a U.N. sponsored global poll rates climate change dead last
The PDF of the item (graphics and text) is here.
Interim Report of the Senate Select Committee on Wind Turbines
The PDF of the Report (June 2015, 29 pages) is here.
Mark Steyn: Keynote address to the International Conference of Climate Change sponsored by The Heartland Institute
YouTube video link is here.
"Register of Environmental Organisations"
[A Submission by P.S. Clark to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on the Environment Inquiry into the administration, transparency and effectiveness of the Register of Environmental Organisations under the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997, 21 May 2015]
Full submission here (PDF)
"A New View On Climate Change Involving the Relevance of Behavioural Economics"
[A Submission regarding Australia's post-2020 emissions reduction target
by the Climate Study Group, April 2015]
Recent results in psychology research have made a significant contribution to behavioural economics. The results are also relevant for determination of public policy. On this basis implications for climate policy are reviewed.
Full submission here (PDF)
Important Scientific Paper
"The Potency of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) as a Greenhouse Gas"
Antero Ollila, Adjunct Associate Professor, Aalto University, Finland
According to this study the commonly applied radiative forcing (RF) value of 3.7 Wm-2 for CO2 concentration of 560 ppm includes water feedback. The same value without water feedback is 2.16 Wm-2 which is 41.6 % smaller. Spectral analyses show that the contribution of CO2 in the greenhouse (GH) phenomenon is about 11 % and water's strength in the present climate in comparison to CO2 is 15.2. The author has analyzed the value of the climate sensitivity (CS) and the climate sensitivity parameter using three different calculation bases. These methods include energy balance calculations, infrared radiation absorption in the atmosphere, and the changes in outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. According to the analyzed results, the equilibrium CS (ECS) is at maximum 0.6 ┬░C and the best estimate of climate sensitivity is 0.268 K/(Wm-2) without any feedback mechanisms. The latest warming scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for different CO2 concentrations until the year 2100 include the same feedbacks as the 2011 warming i.e. only water feedback. The ECS value of 3.0 ┬░C would mean that other feedback mechanisms should be stronger than water feedback. So far there is no evidence about these mechanisms, even though 40 % of the change from 280 ppm to 560 ppm has already happened. The relative humidity trends since 1948 show descending development which gives no basis for using positive water feedback in any warming calculations. Cloudiness changes could explain the recent stagnation in global warming.
The full paper [PDF] is available here.
Patrick Moore Goes to War
The co-founder of Greenpeace left his Melbourne audience in no doubt that the so-called 'environmental organisation' is a not only an enemy of progress, it regards the waste of human life as collateral damage in its crusade to hector, harass and hobble all who oppose its ambitions.
Full article here (PDF)
Former Greenpeace Co-founder to vist Australia
|Greenpeace Co-Founder Dr Patrick Moore was director of Greenpeace International for seven years, when it became the world's largest environmental activist organisation. Moore left Greenpeace in 1986. He is currently touring Australia discussing the global warming scare.|
The UN Climate Summit has been forgotten but we still seem to be trying to discover how long is a piece of string. While an article since in prominent science journal Nature acknowledges the "barely risen" (as it puts it) temperature over 16 years makes tenuous the aim to try to limit temperature increases to the IPCC's 2C, the authors suggest the increased energy generated by humans lies buried in the oceans and is stoking sea level rises. Yet the rate of such rises poses no serious threat to humans.
Another recent report says the Presidents of the US and India have agreed to scale back the chemical refrigerants (HFCs) used in air conditioners and home appliances because they may be trapping the sun's heat in the atmosphere. Yet with no apparent effect on temperatures. Of course, the US Administration recently claimed that global warming is a bigger threat to mankind than Islamic State.
More sensibly, former head of the National Climate Centre, William Kininmonth, argued in his letter in The Australian that queries about the temperature data published by the Bureau of Meteorology should be examined not on their own but as part of a full and open scrutiny of the scientific methodology used.
Indeed, the stage has surely been reached in the climate change string where a thorough explanation needs to be provided to a confused public of the justification for governments continuing to spend taxpayers money on policies designed to reduce temperatures which are already stagnant. Desirably, such an explanation should be made before any decision on continuing the enormous subsidies for renewable energy.
Former co-founder of Greenpeace, Canadian Patrick Moore, is due shortly in Australia to explain why he is a convert and now accepts the growing sceptical view of the dangerous warming thesis. He is even trying to obtain access to Abbott to explain why he should become a full sceptic. Moore (no relation) is a much sought after speaker overseas and, thanks to the sponsorship by Case Smit (who brought Monckton to Australia) will be making presentations from 20 October.
It's official: no global warming for 18 years 1 month
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The RSS monthly satellite global temperature anomaly for September 2014 is in, and the Great Pause is now two months longer than it was last month. Would this year's el Ni├▒o bite soon enough to stop the psychologically-significant 18-year threshold from being crossed? The official answer is No.
Globally, September was scarcely warmer than August, which was itself some distance below the 18-year trend-line. Therefore, taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies, there has now been no global warming for 18 years 1 month.
Dr Benny Peiser, our good friend at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the UK, had anticipated the official crossing of the 18-year threshold by a day or two with an interesting note circulated to supporters on the ever-lengthening period without any global warming, and featuring our 17-years-11-months graph from last month.
The Great Pause is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for a little over half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Full report is here.
"Global warming orthodoxy is not merely irrational. It is wicked."
There is something odd about the global warming debate - or the climate change debate, as we are now expected to call it, since global warming has for the time being come to a halt.
I have never shied away from controversy, nor - for example, as Chancellor - worried about being unpopular if I believed that what I was saying and doing was in the public interest.
But I have never in my life experienced the extremes of personal hostility, vituperation and vilification which I - along with other dissenters, of course - have received for my views on global warming and global warming policies.
[An essay based on the text of a speech given to the Institute for Sustainable Energy and the Environment at the University of Bath]
New Submission to Senate Committee
by Dr Ian R.G. Wilson
Personal Submission to the Senate Committee on Recent Trends in and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events. South-Eastern Australia needs to prepare for hot dry conditions in the summer of 2019 and possible extensive flooding in 2029.
One religion is enough
by John Howard[An extract from the Annual Lecture to Global Warming Policy Foundation on 5 November 2013]
We are all aware of the climate enthusiasts, who advocate quite substantial, and costly, responses to what they see as irrefutable evidence that the world's climate faces catastrophe. By employing a sanctimonious tone against people who do not share their view, they show their true colours: to them the cause has become a substitute religion. Increasingly offensive language is used. The most egregious example has been the term "denier".
We are all aware of the particular meaning that word has acquired in contemporary parlance. It has been employed in this debate with some malice aforethought. An overriding feature of the debate is the constant attempt to intimidate policy makers, in some cases successfully, with the mantras of "follow the science" and "the science is truly settled".
The purpose is to create the impression that there is really no room for argument; this is not really a public policy issue; it is one on which the experts have spoken, and we would all be quite daft to do other than follow the prescriptions, it is asserted, which flow automatically from the scientific findings. Continue reading...
Ray Evans Reflects19 October 2013
"Various commentators are telling us we must have a "price on carbon". One presumes they mean that we need to levy a tax on emissions of carbon dioxide, which is not quite the same thing. Currently NSW is suffering from the worst bushfires for a decade. These bushfires are emitting many megatonnes of CO2, arguably equivalent to Australia's annual emissions of anthropogenic CO2. Does the atmospheric CO2 from bushfires play a different climate control role to mankind's emissions? If not, then who is to pay the tax on them? This on-going "carbon" lunacy becomes increasingly difficult to challenge, since the language and the slogans used by the Warmists have no connection with the real world."
"The story from Germany becomes increasingly fantastic (although tragic for the Germans). The account of a secret deal between Germany and the UK in which Germany could save its auto industry, and Britain keep its financial services sector in good health is something out of Fawlty Towers - "Don't mention the War".
For related articles, see our Most Recent Additions page.
IPCC at a crossroad with fifth climate change report
by William Kininmonth25 September 2013
The meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Stockholm this week is arguably the most important in its 25-year history. The meeting is to finalise the fifth IPCC assessment report, the UN's formal advice to governments.
Since the release of the fourth report in 2007, the IPCC finds itself battling to retain credibility as a source of independent advice to governments.
Parliamentary and semi-judicial inquiries were held in Britain following unintended public access to email exchanges held by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. The emails involved scientists and others associated with the IPCC process. No wrong-doing was attributed to the scientists but questions of probity and bias were left unanswered. Continue reading...
Taxing Air successfully launched in Adelaide
29 July 2013
Written by Bob Carter and John Spooner, Taxing Air: Facts and Fallacies About Climate Change was successfully launched by Senator Cory Bernardi at the Bert Kelly Research Centre in Adelaide on 29 July.
Speakers at the launch included Lydia Bevege (Institute of Public Affairs), Centre Chairman Bob Day and author Prof. Bob Carter. More information and images here.
BOOK LAUNCH: "Reflections of a Professional Engineer"
a personal account of family and professional life
4.30 pm, Wednesday 19 December 2012,
Engineers Australia Auditorium, Chatswood, NSW
George Fox AM was a founding member of the Lavoisier Group. He had a long career with the English Electric Company as managing director for Australia, after which at age 55 he formed his own small business which he ran for the next 43 years. He was on the boards of 12 companies, represented numerous manufacturers, ranging from turbine blades to arc furnaces to transportation systems and spent much time and energy giving back to the profession. For more than a decade he championed a realistic and fact-based view of climate change, deriding false science.
He was made a Member of the Order of Australia for services to engineering in 2007 and also received the James N Kirby Award for outstanding contributions to electrical engineering.
George Fox died in June 2012 aged 98. His memorial service was held in Pymble on 14 June which noted that he was still on the board of one company at the time of his passing. He had had a huge innings, packing in the '60 seconds worth of distance run' every waking minute. He had completed the text of his book at the time of his death. "Reflections of a Professional Engineer" was launched on Wednesday 19 December 2012 at 4.30pm at Engineers Australia Auditorium in Chatswood in Sydney.
Further information may be found here. Ray Evans' obituary notice is here.
Copies of the book will be available on the evening for purchase, at $65.00 nett. Cash or cheque payable to 'ECF Engineering Pty Ltd'. To obtain a copy please write to Robert Fox at email@example.com.
Important New Paper
Is the Western Climate Establishment Corrupt?
by Dr David Evans
"How many excuses does it take? The Western Climate Establishment has allowed egregious mistakes, major errors, and obvious biases to accumulate - each factor on its own might be hard to pin down, but the pattern is undeniable."
"The public might not understand the science, but they do understand cheating..."
Download the PDF [4.5 Mb] here.
The Climategate Emails
edited and annotated by John Costella
In November 2009, an anonymous whistleblower put just over 1000 emails comprising email traffic to and from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) on an obscure Russian website. They were subsequently rapidly disseminated around the world.
These emails show a tightly knit cabal of scientists adjusting temperature data to conform to their political agenda; exerting pressure to censor publications going into the "peer reviewed" literature (usually with complete success); bullying journalists with threats of excommunication so that what was published in the mainstream media was in accordance with the global warming agenda; and using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the primary vehicle for their political ambitions.
To work through these emails, in order to discover what was going on, is a major undertaking. John Costella has provided us with an edited and annotated account of the emails which enables the lay person, in a relatively short time, to understand what was going on and how it was done.
This PDF version of the published book will provide access to everyone who is concerned with this great debate. It is available here.
Hard copy of Back to the Nineteenth Century available on request;
online version also available
Back to the Nineteenth Century, comprises three essays by Ray Evans (on the social and economic consequences of the CPRS), Tom Quirk (on the shortcomings of the IPCC science) and Alan Moran (on the economic consequences of the Act, especially for energy), together with a foreword by Peter Walsh.
The publication is available in either of two forms: as hard copy or as an online PDF file. To order a hard copy, please send your details to the Secretary here. Please include your name and postal address and the number of copies you would like to receive. The Lavoisier Group would be grateful to receive donations to cover postage and printing costs.
If preferred, the booklet may also be downloaded as a PDF file. To download it, please click here [2.9 Mb PDF].
Our most recent Forum was held in Melbourne in July 2008. Entitled 'The Solar System and Earth's Climate', we are adding presentations from the Forum to our site as they come to hand. Click here for three Forum papers on the life and work of Rhodes Fairbridge. Click here for Ian Wilson's 'Which Came First: The Chicken or the Egg?' [PDF]