The only temperature maximum from the 1990s is from WA.
The period 1790-1820 was particularly cold in Europe and is known as the Dalton Minimum. It can be discerned in Figure 4 and it is associated with Sunspots 5 and 6 which were very weak solar cycles. Sunspots 24 and 25, which will begin to exert their influence on the solar winds and magnetic fields emanating from the Sun within the next two years, are predicted to be similar to Sunspots 5 and 6 in weakness. If these predictions turn out to be accurate, then the current global warming catastrophism will doubtless rapidly change into global cooling catastrophism.
4. The evidence linking anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide emissions and current warming is limited to a correlation which holds only for the period 1976 to 2000. Attempts to construct an holistic theory in which atmospheric carbon dioxide controls the radiation balance of the earth, and thus determines average global temperatures, have failed.
If we plot global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the period 1970-2000 we will obtain a reasonably good correlation, and it appears plausible to argue that anthropogenic emissions are causing global warming. A good correlation, however, does not prove causality between the two variables, and even more importantly, if we extend our time scale and plot fossil fuel consumption (a good proxy for anthropogenic emissions) against temperature change from 1860 to 2000, we see no correlation at all.
Here we see that global temperatures rose from 1860 to 1875, then cooled until 1890, rose until 1903, fell until 1918 and then rose dramatically until 1941-42. We then experienced the long cooling until 1976, the year of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and since then temperatures have risen by about 0.4°C. There is essentially zero correlation between the temperature curve and the anthropogenic CO2 curve over this 140-year period. This fact alone should have brought the carbon dioxide-induced global warming debate to an end.
It is also becoming clear that the huge computer models upon which the anthropogenists base their predictions bear little relationship to what actually happens in the complex world of the atmosphere and the oceans which interact to produce our climate in all its variability.
These models also fail to take into account changes in solar eruptions which are manifest in variations in sunspot activity, and which correlate extremely well with the historical record of low global temperatures, such as the Dalton Minimum of 1790-1820 , the Maunder Minimum of 1660-1690, and the Sporer Minimum of 1450. Astro-physicists are predicting that the next sun spot cycles, No. 24 and No. 25, will be of low intensity and will therefore result in high cloud cover and low temperatures. NASA has predicted that No. 25 will be the quietest sun-spot cycle for hundreds of years. Within 20 years we will know the winner in this scientific contest.
5. The anthropogenists claim that the overwhelming majority of scientists are agreed on the anthropogenic carbon dioxide theory of climate control; that the science is settled and the debate is over; and that scientific sceptics are in the pay of the fossil fuel industries and their arguments are thus fatally compromised. These claims are an expression of hope, not of reality.
The progress of science since the Middle Ages has not been made through consensus and censorship but through individuals who have challenged existing orthodoxies and shown them to be either wrong or inadequate. Galileo and his challenge to the Jesuits is a well known example. It is a revealing commentary on the global warming debate that the anthropogenists place so much weight on their claimed monopoly of scientific opinion.
A number of prominent scientists claim that anthropogenic CO2 emissions have already caused global warming and must be severely curtailed to prevent future climate catastrophe. However, their predictions are tainted by their patronage arrangements with governments or political leaders who have invested heavily in global warming catastrophism. When political leaders identify themselves with a scientific theory, they can often exert great pressures to ensure that critics are squeezed out of research grants and career opportunities. These tactics do not compare with Stalin's treatment of critics of Lysenko and his theories of the inheritability of acquired characteristics and other bizarre notions. The consequences for many Russian geneticists who opposed Lysenko were fatal. But the conjunction of political prestige and scientific authority does explain why so many scientists, dependent on the grace and favour of politicians, are very careful in what they say about carbon dioxide and global warming. A brief history of how the CSIRO became trapped in anthropogenist dogma is relevant here.
The years 1987 through 1992 were critically important for
the evolution of Australian Federal and State policies on greenhouse.
The leading, and for public purposes the only, source of scientific
input, rarely disputed, was the Division of Atmospheric Research
The year 1988 was critical because the international conference The Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security was held in Toronto from June 27 to June 30 1988. The Conference Statement called for 'Actions by Governments and Industry' which included the Toronto Target: 'Reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 20 per cent of 1988 levels by the year 2005 as an initial global goal'. The Toronto Target rapidly became accepted wisdom amongst the chattering classes globally, and was embraced and promoted by CSIRO. It was therefore assumed to have a valid, scientific basis. Adopted by the Federal Cabinet in October 1990, it also became a benchmark set by many State governments. The Federal Coalition, then led by John Hewson, advocated an even more rigorous target. The policies of both Government and Opposition in 1990 put much greater impositions on Australia than the 1997 Kyoto target.
In his 50-page monograph in 1990, Postponing Greenhouse, Brian O'Brien vigorously attacked the Toronto Target as being 'merely a number plucked from the 1988 entrails at Toronto'. The proceedings of the Toronto Conference show that the number evolved as a two-part 'challenge' from a half-day workshop, with no scientific credibility or basis.
In December, 1990, the Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Dr Brian Tucker, agreed with O'Brien that the 20 per cent figure seemed to be plucked from thin air. In a remarkable admission of the weakness of the science behind the Toronto Target, which was at that time the basis of Government policy, he wrote 'but it must surely have been based on something!'
But the CSIRO still attacked O'Brien's claim, both in briefing Ministers Simon Crean and Ros Kelly and in the June 1991 Bulletin of the Business Council of Australia. The May Bulletin published part of O'Brien's 21 March 1991 submission to the Industry Commission Inquiry into Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The June Bulletin published the CSIRO response commissioned by the Industry Commission and O'Brien's rebuttal to CSIRO. This was the first time there had been any serious open public debate in Australia about greenhouse science.
The CSIRO finally admitted that the Toronto Target was set politically, but continued to defend it. It remained the pivot of the first National Greenhouse Response Strategy of 7 December 1992, the 'No Regrets Policy' which prevailed in Australian Governments until Kyoto in 1997. The scientific basis of the National Strategy was not published until two weeks after the COAG Heads of State endorsed the Strategy. However, those climate change forecasts had been gazumped one month previously, in November 1992, when CSIRO itself issued new forecasts drastically smaller than its 1987 climate-change impacts. The CSIRO had down-scaled the greenhouse effects, but governments stayed locked into early, more frightening predictions. CSIRO did not publicise the old and the new forecasts side by side.
The only opposition to the CSIRO's position of monopoly advice at this time came from complete outsiders such as John Daly and former professor of space science, Dr Brian O'Brien.
Internationally, a number of the most eminent scientists in the field of physics and climate science generally have made scathing criticisms of the IPCC and its advocacy of the 'consensus' view. One recent such criticism is from Hendrik Tennekes, the world's leading authority on the physics of turbulent flow, and recently retired Director of Research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute:
The climate orthodoxy perpetuates the misconceptions involved by speaking, as IPCC does, about the Scientific Basis of Climate Change. Since then, I have responded to that ideology by stating that there is no chance at all that the physical sciences can produce a universally accepted scientific basis for policy measures concerning climate change.
Australia's Garth Paltridge, a distinguished scientist who retired recently from his post as Director of the Antarctic CRC and IASOS at the University of Tasmania, commented on the way in which the IPCC and its supporters operate:
Each of the successive summaries [to the IPCC's Assessment Reports] has been phrased in such a way as to appear a little more certain than the last that greenhouse warming is a potential disaster for mankind. The increasing verbal certainty does not derive from any particular advance of the science. Rather, it is a function of how strongly a statement about global warming can be put without inviting a significant backlash from the general scientific community. Over the years, the opinion of that community has been manipulated into more-or-less passive support by a deliberate campaign to isolate---and indeed to denigrate---the scientific sceptics outside the central activity of the IPCC. The audience has been actively conditioned into being receptive. It has thereby become gradually easier to sell the proposition of greenhouse disaster.
Professor Paltridge has publicly discussed the threats, made by the CSIRO, of funding cuts to the Antarctic Research programme for which he was responsible, after he had made sceptical comments in the press about the global warming 'consensus'.
One of the idiocies which has followed from the capture of the science establishment by the anthropogenists is that research into the causes of the periodicity of the long-lasting ice ages and the brief interglacials is being carried out mostly by people who are cut off from the official science establishment, without recourse to research funds or access to the so-called peer-reviewed literature. The anthropogenists, contrariwise, control huge budgets which are devoted to proving the anthropogenic carbon dioxide theory of climate control. The complete intellectual failure of this enterprise has led to demands by establishment scientists and their supporters in the media for censorship of the sceptics, and even the imprisonment of people who are called 'climate change deniers'. For example, George Monbiot, Environment Correspondent for The London Guardian, has just published a new book entitled Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning. In it he writes:
When we've finally gotten serious about global warming, when the impacts are really hitting us and we're in a full worldwide scramble to minimize the damage, we should have war crimes trials for these bastards---some sort of climate Nuremberg....
6. Anthropogenists such as former US Vice President Al Gore blame anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for high temperatures, droughts, melting polar ice caps, rising sea levels and retreating glaciers, and a decline in the polar bear population. They also blame anthropogenic CO2 for blizzards, unseasonable snow, freezing weather generally and for hurricanes, cyclones and other extreme weather events. There is no evidence at all to justify these assertions.
As the years passed and North America, the UK and Northern Europe experienced some rather severe winters (but not as severe as the winter of 1946-47) the global warming story began to look a bit threadbare. So the words 'climate change' superseded 'global warming', and explanations were put forward as to why increasing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide could lead to severe winters as well as hot summers. The high point of this campaign was the movie The Day After Tomorrow which showed New York inundated with snow and ice as global warming triggered the onset of the next Ice Age.
One of the most frequent arguments in this genre is the shutting down of the Gulf Stream by global warming with horrendous consequences for all of Europe. Carl Wunsch, Professor of Physical Oceanography at MIT, and the world's leading authority on ocean currents, commented:
The only way to produce an ocean circulation without the Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or stop the earth's rotation, or both.
The Greenpeace protesters at the Montreal COP, held in December 2005, had to endure blizzard conditions. Mark Steyn, writing in the London Daily Telegraph about this event, suggested that Montreal had been relocated to
planet Goofy, a strange lost world where it's perfectly normal for apparently sane people to walk around protesting about global warming in sub-zero temperatures. Or, as the Canadian Press reported: 'Montreal---tens of thousands of people ignored frigid temperatures Saturday to lead a worldwide day of protest against global warming'.
Unfortunately, no one had supplied an updated weather forecast to the fellow who writes the protesters' chants. So, to the accompaniment of the obligatory pseudo-ethnic drummers, the shivering eco-warriors sang: 'It's hot in here! There's too much carbon in the atmosphere!' Is this the first sign of the New Ice Age the media warned us about last week?
But the point is, as Steven Guilbeault of Greenpeace puts it: 'Global warming can mean colder, it can mean drier, it can mean wetter, that's what we're dealing with.' Got that? If it's hot, that's a sign of global warming, and, if it's cold, that's a sign of global warming.
And if it's just kind of average---say, 9°C, and partially cloudy, as it will be in Llandudno today---that's a sign that global warming is accelerating out of control and you need to flee immediately because time is running out ! Time is running out to deal with climate change, says Mr Guilbeault. 'Ten years ago, we thought we had a lot of time, five years ago we thought we had a lot of time, but now science is telling us that we don't have a lot of time.'
During the northern summer of 2005, Florida, Louisiana and Texas bore the brunt of some severe cyclones. Katrina, in particular, caused enormous damage in New Orleans. Once again the anthropogenists were quick to blame it all on global warming and carbon dioxide emissions. Swiss Re and Munich Re are two very large re-insurance companies which have been doing all they can to support the argument that anthropogenic carbon dioxide is the culprit.
There is no evidence at all to support this. There is zero correlation between the incidence and severity of cyclones with atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Insurance payouts, of course, have increased greatly. This is because Americans have been migrating to the warmer southeastern states. Florida now has a population of 20 million and the value of real estate in that State has increased accordingly.
We are told that the polar ice caps
are melting; that polar
bears are endangered;
that glaciers are retreating;
and that sea levels are rising and threatening the populations
of the so-called 'low-lying island states'.
The problem here again is that there is no evidence to support
their claims. The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring
Project, funded by AusAID and managed by the National Tidal Facility
(NTF), has found that sea levels are rising, at best, by 5 millimetres
Morner and his team did an exhaustive investigation of the claim made by the IPCC that the Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean are at risk from sea level rise accelerated by global warming. He found considerable evidence that the sea level in the Maldives has fallen over the past 30 years, and that the islands and their people survived much higher sea levels in the past. What is rarely mentioned is that many of these islands are near the boundaries of the earth's crustal plates, whose movement is responsible for their uplift or sinking relative to global mean sea level.
The global warmers' argument for rising sea levels is that the polar ice caps are melting and therefore sea levels are rising. It is revealing that many anthropogenists do not understand that the Arctic Ice Cap, floating as it does in the Arctic Sea, makes no difference whether it is in solid or in liquid form. The solid form---ice---has a density 90 per cent of the liquid form, which is why it floats---just---in water.
Whenever rising sea level stories are given a run on TV, we have shots of Antarctic icebergs calving from the ice shelf. We do not, however, see snow falling onto the Antarctic ice sheets some thousands of metres above sea level where temperatures are rarely above freezing point. Satellite observations tell us that the Greenland ice sheets are thickening, not diminishing, and that the Antarctic Ice sheet is now believed also to be thickening, not diminishing.
7. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will have negligible impact on the earth's radiation balance and will promote plant growth everywhere. There is no need to sequester CO2 in the ground or to subsidise nuclear or other non-carbon based methods of energy production.
The claim that increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will cause runaway rising temperatures is at the heart of the global warming scam. It is based on projections coming out of climate models run on the most powerful computers which purport to simulate the behaviour of the atmosphere as it responds to changes in carbon dioxide concentrations. The claim that computer models can do this and produce meaningful results is regarded as nonsense by the leading scientists in the fields of fluid mechanics, numerical modelling of complex systems, and climate science.
For example, Hendrik Tennekes, retired Director of Research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, and the leading world authority on fluid turbulence wrote recently:
the task of finding all nonlinear feedback mechanisms in the microstructure of the radiation balance probably is at least as daunting as the task of finding the proverbial needle in the haystack. The blind adherence to the harebrained idea that climate models can generate 'realistic' simulations of climate is the principal reason why I remain a climate skeptic. From my background in turbulence I look forward with grim anticipation to the day that climate models will run with a horizontal resolution of less than a kilometre. The horrible predictability problems of turbulent flows then will descend on climate science with a vengeance.
Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor at the University of Wisconsin, and regarded by many climatologists as the 'father of climatology' has written:
A model is nothing more than a formal statement about how the modeller believes the part of the world of his concern actually works it may be years before computer capacity and human knowledge are adequate for reasonable simulation the main models in use all have similar errors, but it is hardly surprising, for they are all essentially clones of each other.
The apparent ability of the computer models to simulate the global surface temperatures of the 20th century comes with too many assumptions and shortcomings. Despite the IPCC advocacy, it is not possible to isolate anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the cause (or even a major cause) for the observed warming of the last two and a half decades of the 20th century. The world-wide advance of mountain glaciers until the mid-19th century, and their steady retreat since, point toward large-scale natural processes systematically affecting the climate system over prolonged intervals Whether the systematic processes are internal to the climate system, an outcome of external forcing, or a combination of these, cannot be determined with any confidence from existing data and analysis tools. As a corollary, the sensitivity of the earth's temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing cannot be scaled by reference to the magnitude of recent global temperature increase and the forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases as represented in computer model simulations of the 20th century.
In his Marshall Institute paper, William Gray, America's hurricane expert, commented at length on the shortcomings of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) which are used to legitimise claims of anthropogenic global warming catastrophe. He said, inter-alia,
Skilful initial-value GCM climate prediction will likely never to be possible. This is due to the overly complex nature of the atmosphere/ocean/land system and the inability of numerical models to realistically represent the full range of physical complexity and to integrate this complexity forward for hundreds of thousands of time steps into the future. Realistic initial-value forecasts currently cannot be made more than a week or two into the future. Any imperfect representations of the highly non-linear parameters of the atmosphere-ocean system tend to quickly degrade (the so-called butterfly effect) into unrealistic flow states upon long-period integration.
Skilful short-range prediction is possible because there tends to be conservatism in the initial momentum fields which can be extrapolated or advected for short periods. But beyond about 1-2 weeks, the many multiple unknown and non-linear energy-moisture exchanges within the earth system become dominant. If skilful GCM climate forecasts were possible, we would be eager to track their skill. Currently, GCMs do not make seasonal or yearly forecasts. They dare not issue these forecasts because they know they are not skilful. GCM climate forecasts cannot compete with empirical climate forecast schemes. How can we trust GCM climate forecasts 50 and 100 years into the future (that cannot be verified in our lifetime) when these same models are not able to demonstrate shorter range forecast skill of a season or a year?
This crucial point has to be emphasized. Predictions of catastrophic temperature rises are based on computer simulations, mathematical models, of the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans which cannot represent the extraordinary and still not fully understood complexity of the real world. To impose huge economic and social dislocation on the basis of such predictions would be the triumph of fear and superstition over reason.
8. 'Tropical' diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are not related to temperature but to poverty, lack of sanitation and the absence of mosquito control practices.
The IPCC claimed in 1995 that increasing global temperatures, consequent to increasing CO2 concentrations, would lead to the spread of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases. At that time it was pointed out, amongst other things, that Oliver Cromwell had died of malaria in London in September 1658 at a particularly cold period in English history. Paul Reiter, formerly Chief of the Entomology Section, Dengue Branch, at the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in San Juan, Puerto Rico and now at the Pasteur Institute in Paris has written extensively on malaria in England and Northern Europe during the seventeenth century. His discussion of 'the ague' as it is described in Shakespeare and other contemporary documents, gives a fascinating insight into the perils of living in swampy areas such as Westminster and the coastal marshes of the Thames estuary.
In his submission to the House of Lords Inquiry into the Economic Consequences of Climate Change, Professor Reiter commented on the IPCC's discussion of malaria in its Second Assessment Report:
The scientific literature on mosquito-borne diseases is voluminous, yet the text references in the chapter were restricted to a handful of articles, many of them relatively obscure, and nearly all suggesting an increase in prevalence of disease in a warmer climate. The paucity of information was hardly surprising: not one of the lead authors had ever written a research paper on the subject! Moreover, two of the authors, both physicians, had spent their entire career as environmental activists. [One of these has published 'professional' articles as an 'expert' on 32 different subjects, ranging from mercury poisoning to land mines, globalization to allergies and West Nile virus to AIDS].
Among the contributing authors there was one entomologist, plus a person who had written an obscure article on dengue and El Niño, but whose principal interest was the effectiveness of motor cycle crash helmets (plus one paper on the health effects of cell phones).
Reiter has pointed out that malaria and other 'tropical' diseases have more to do with living conditions than temperature. For example he has analysed the Texas-Mexico border, where dengue fever was prevalent in Mexico and rare in Texas despite the similar environmental conditions. The only difference was living conditions.
Malaria is making a comeback in Africa, in central Asia, and other parts of the world suffering from political upheaval. The IPCC's attempt to link this to global warming is farcical, but it is a farce with serious consequences.
9. The decarbonisation of the world's economy would, if attempted, cause huge economic dislocation. Any democratic government which seriously sought to fulfil decarbonisation commitments would lose office. Shutting down coal-fired power stations and replacing them with renewable energy sources such as windmills or solar panels will cause unemployment and economic deprivation
The Environmentalist movement persists in denying the economic consequences of seriously attempted decarbonisation. In one particular sense they are theoretically correct. If we all do give up our motor cars and ride bicycles instead; if we were content to use electricity only when the wind was blowing; if we were prepared to give up the use of fertilizers and tractors; in effect if we were prepared to accept a standard of living similar to that of our forebears of the early nineteenth century, we could still all be employed, although working at night would be difficult in the absence of electricity. In the early 1990s, Aaron Wildavsky noted the implications of decarbonisation:
Global warming is the mother of environmental scares. In the scope of its consequences for life on planet Earth and the immense size of its remedies, global warming dwarfs all the environmental and safety scares of our time put together. Warming (and warming alone), through its primary antidote of withdrawing carbon from production and consumption, is capable of realizing the environmentalist's dream of an egalitarian society based on rejection of economic growth in favour of a smaller population's eating lower on the food chain, consuming a lot less, and sharing a much lower level of resources much more equally.
Abandoning coal-based electricity in Australia would result in the serious contraction or even demise of most of our export industries---viz., mining, metals processing, agriculture and food processing---which are highly energy intensive and thus benefit from low-cost electricity. The numbers are important. Coal-based power in Australia costs about $30-$40 per Megawatt hour (MWhr). Nuclear power, the only practical alternative to coal, currently costs $70-$80 per MWhr. Windmills, which generate electricity when the wind is blowing at the right speed, cost about $80-$130 per MWhr, but require backup from reliable sources which makes them completely uneconomic. They are currently being built on pristine coastlines and mountain ranges because of the substantial subsidies which electricity consumers provide to the operators of these behemoths. The burning of fuels such as bagasse, straw and sawdust to generate electricity is commercially attractive when the fuel is essentially a waste product (for example, bagasse), with a negative value. This happens without the need for legislation or subsidies.
There have been a number of attempts to generate electricity using solar radiation. The CSIRO built a large, albeit experimental, solar power unit at White Cliffs in NSW. It was an economic failure. A private company built a large solar generating unit in the Mojave Desert in California using hundreds of parabolic mirrors. It went bankrupt. Solar power costs upwards of $200 per MWhr and is available only when the sun is shining.
A number of economists have climbed onto the global warming bandwagon in order to promote so-called market mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. Emissions trading is a popular proposal. All of these schemes are variants on the market for taxi-cab licences. Every major city in Australia has a regime of taxi licensing in which the number of taxis allowed to operate is limited by State regulation. This creates a scarcity factor which increases the value of the taxi licence, and these licences are traded for sums in the order of $250,000. If the regulation requiring taxi drivers to have a licence for their taxi was abolished (as happened in New Zealand) the value of the licence would be zero.
These licences constitute a tax which has to be paid by taxi users. Emission licences for power stations or petrol refineries would operate in the same way. What is not known is how great the tax on carbon emissions would have to be to ensure that electricity users would reduce their consumption by the desired amount. In the first instance, large electricity users such as aluminium smelters, cement producers and fertilizer plants would relocate to other countries. The Australian motor car industry, already under threat from international competition, would close. And the ripple effect would spread out through the Australian economy causing unemployment first in one industry and then in another.
Even more ambitious are the proposals for a global carbon permit, carbon pricing and emissions trading scheme. The basic idea is that every nation will agree on a CO2 emissions ceiling within their jurisdiction, and issue internationally tradable permits accordingly, but then allow variations on that policy by intervening in the market through buying existing permits or selling new permits. The only political regime which would make this possible is a global imperial order of unprecedented extent and authority, encompassing all of the major economies of the world, with extraordinary powers of intrusive and detailed supervision of economic and social life.
At the level of contemporary national politics, the impact of such price increases and consequent economic dislocation would have political consequences. No government which introduced such a regime of carbon taxation would survive an election, but the damage that would be wrought in the meantime would be long-lasting.
Conclusion and Acknowledgments
The global warming scam has been, arguably, the most extraordinary example of scientific fraud in the post-War period. So many people, and institutions, have been caught up in the web of deceit, master-minded by environmental activists working through NGOs and their manipulation of the IPCC processes, that the integrity of Western science is seriously at risk. The unravelling of this web will result in the loss of reputation for many individuals, but more importantly, in the restructuring of those scientific institutions in Australia and elsewhere which have tied their reputations to that of the IPCC. That issue should be high on our political agenda.
I am particularly indebted to William Kininmonth and Robert Foster for their comments on this publication, and to the Lavoisier Group membership which has made its publication possible.
1. Paul Collins quoting Cardinal Pell in The Australian 10 May 2006:
'pagan emptiness and fears about nature have led to hysteric and extreme claims about global warming. In the past, pagans sacrificed animals and even humans in vain attempts to placate capricious and cruel gods. Today they demand a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.'
3. Calgary Herald, 14 December 1998.
4. Milutin Milankovitch, a civil engineer, born in Serbia in 1879 was appointed Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Belgrade in 1909. See Endersbee, A Voyage of Discovery (below) for further details.
5. See I Charvatova, 1988, 'The Relations between Solar Motion and Solar Variability', Czechoslovak Academy of Science, provided by the NASA Astrophysics Data System.
6. Lance Endersbee, A Voyage of Discovery, 2005, self published, available at the Monash University Bookshop, pp. 218-219.
7. Christopher Monckton, Apocalypse Cancelled, Discussion, Calculations and References, 5 November 2006, London Sunday Telegraph.
8. Grootes, Stuver, White, Johnsen, Jouzel, 'Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP2 and GRIP Greenland ice cores', Nature, 366, 1993, pp. 552-554.
9. Usoskin, Solankii, Schussler, Mursula and Alauko, 'Millenium scale sunspot number reconstruction: Evidence for an unusually active Sun since the 1940s', Physical Review Letters, 2003, 91, (21).
10. IPCC, Third Assessment Report, Figure 3.1, p 188.
11. The Wall Street Journal editorial: 'Hockey Stick Hokum', 14 July 2006.
12. Shaopeng Huang et al. (1995) compiled a major analysis of more than 6,000 ground borehole records from every continent to establish a global proxy temperature record for the past 20,000 years. The reconstruction indicated that the Mediaeval Warm Period was appreciably warmer than the current warm period, which is simply a continuation of the recovery of temperatures following the cold period of the Little Ice Age from about 1350 AD to 1850 AD.
13. David C Archibald, 'Solar Cycles 24 & 25 and Predicted Climate Response', Energy and Environment, 2006, 17 (1).
14. See William Gray, op. cit.
15. David H Hathaway and Robert M Wilson, 'What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate', Solar Physics, 2004, 224, pp. 5-19, NASA/ Marshall Space Flight Centre.
16. The internationally famous Soviet geneticist, Nikolai Vavilov, was arrested in 1940 and died in prison in 1943.
17. Letter to Brian O'Brien, 20 December 1990.
18. Heat: How to Stop the Planet Burning, Allen Lane, October 2006.
William Gray op. cit., also W. Kininmonth, Climate
Change: A Natural Hazard, Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd,
The only reason the poles are not blocks of ice year round
is the heat which is exported from the tropics. The idea that
a bit more or less sun absorbed by unfrozen ocean at the poles
will cause runaway melting is in complete contradiction to thermodynamic
Polar bears are a potentially threatened (not endangered)
species living in the circumpolar north. They are animals which
know no boundaries. They pad across the ice from Russia to Alaska,
from Canada to Greenland and onto Norway's Svalbard archipelago.
No adequate census exists on which to base a worldwide population
estimate, but biologists use a working figure of perhaps 22,000
to 25,000 bears with about sixty per cent of those living in
Canada. In most sections of the Arctic where estimates are available,
polar bear populations are thought to be stable at present. Counts
have been decreasing in Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait, where
about 3,600 bears are thought to live, but are increasing in
the Beaufort Sea, where there are around 3,000 bears.
22. Most glaciers have been retreating since the end of the Little Ice Age in the late nineteenth century. If the twenty-first century produces much cooler temperatures, then the glaciers will advance---again.
23. Kininmonth, op. cit., pp. 192-3.
24. For example, P. Reiter, 'From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age'. Emerg Infect Dis, 2000, 6 (1), pp. 1-11.
25. Introduction to Robert Balling Jr, The Heated Debate, PRIPP, San Francisco, 1992.
Warwick McKibbin, 'A climate change policy to manage uncertainty',
Australian Chief Executive, 20 June 2005.