Following the decision by Russia to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2004, the treaty came into effect in February 2005. The EU was desperate to get sufficient signatures to trigger the establishment clause in the Protocol and promised President Putin support for Russia's entry into the WTO on favourable terms in return. Both parties delivered on the deal.
After coming into effect, the Protocol required that parties which had signed on to carbon dioxide reductions had to meet the specified targets by 2012. Only two countries, the UK (because of the closure of its coal industry), and Germany (because of the economic collapse of East Germany after reunification) will meet those targets. Although Australia, because of its ban on tree clearing, will allegedly meet its 108 per cent target by 2012, the Howard Government continued to refuse to ratify Kyoto. The Labor Opposition turned that refusal into a symbol of indifference to "climate change" in the months leading up to the 2007 election.
After winning the 2007 federal election by a convincing margin (John Howard losing his seat at the same time) the new Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, immediately went to Bali and began the ratification process at the UNFCCC conference then in session.
The problem now facing the Kyoto membership (including, now, Australia) is that the Protocol expires in 2012, and currently there seems no prospect that a successor treaty can be negotiated. Under Kyoto, the developing countries, notably China and India, were under no obligation to reduce their emissions. Any new treaty, however, requires a global obligation if it is to attract any support at all. Both China and India have made it clear, on many occasions, that they have no intention of reducing their rapid economic progress to modernity, and in particular, they are committed to building coal-burning power stations in unprecedented numbers.
The EU is threatening India and China (and the US) with trade barriers if they refuse to commit to decarbonisation. So far these threats have been treated with indifference.
There is therefore a stalemate on Kyoto Mark II with no resolution in sight.
The Lavoisier Group was founded in 2000 as a group of people
who were concerned about the drift at that time towards ratification
of Kyoto and the decarbonisation of Australia. Our first conference
was held in May 2000 and some of the papers
are available on the website.